Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 14.591866 17.794307 21.370517 25.636641 30.562608 36.047024 42.589065
2025-03-23 10.236680 14.430526 19.648629 26.511370 35.182869 45.654073 59.120493
2025-03-30 7.381076 11.741674 17.664547 26.067182 37.422423 51.958927 71.659505
2025-04-06 6.081200 10.684862 17.394415 27.489620 41.840107 61.014515 87.995291
2025-04-13 4.307720 8.462803 15.005760 25.485889 41.184683 63.089309 95.083106
2025-04-20 3.531438 7.614341 14.462222 25.987589 43.964682 69.884000 108.806963
2025-04-27 2.972592 6.995697 14.147383 26.732284 47.074238 77.248368 123.649224
2025-05-04 2.561792 6.546891 14.022158 27.716485 50.562606 85.303525 139.834421
2025-05-11 2.166771 6.027133 13.672003 28.244751 53.314172 92.354123 154.836889
2025-05-18 1.764776 5.382422 12.972634 28.052766 54.823624 97.528356 167.220266
2025-05-25 1.366941 4.626370 11.915874 27.060640 54.857836 100.330161 176.049874
2025-06-01 1.101035 4.111662 11.253656 26.702606 55.908885 104.750407 187.513619
2025-06-08 0.773085 3.331056 9.926903 25.009442 54.684732 105.787929 194.399734
2025-06-15 0.652805 3.120553 9.869037 25.900889 58.304800 115.206340 215.378872
2025-06-22 0.495496 2.709794 9.230814 25.467284 59.371775 120.313762 229.543826
2025-06-29 0.438380 2.631877 9.422733 26.863633 64.063114 131.938859 254.999545
2025-07-06 0.288274 2.085285 8.212747 24.896971 61.907006 131.317837 259.807052
2025-07-13 0.235558 1.927663 8.063852 25.389341 64.752917 139.809379 280.485765
2025-07-20 0.197029 1.813198 8.017236 26.120252 68.140914 149.448345 303.518202
2025-07-27 0.168707 1.733847 8.063164 27.086349 72.091677 160.308668 329.084145
2025-08-03 0.138048 1.613690 7.943499 27.604949 75.104727 169.535868 352.093130
2025-08-10 0.104584 1.437393 7.578652 27.416473 76.535473 175.804684 370.043327
2025-08-17 0.071600 1.213858 6.964765 26.442554 76.102528 178.428273 381.492079